“This is big,” was the opening remark of Dr. Tim Kelsey, rural economist and community development specialist from Penn State University, speaking to about 70 people attending Tuesday night’s monthly meeting of the Potter County Natural Gas Task Force. From lease payments and royalties being paid to mineral rights owners, to employment and business partnering opportunities, Marcellus Shale natural gas production is an economic goliath, Kelsey said. The challenge for community leaders will be to “minimize the negative implications” and prepare for the years that will follow the boom.
“When it’s gone, it’s gone,” Dr. Kelsey emphasized. “You need to be prepared for that day and not be wholly dependent on it.”
Based on studies of other gas rushes and assessments of the Marcellus Shale potential, Kelsey said the strongest economic activity and creation of jobs will come during a 15- to 20-year “development phase.” Upwards of 90 percent of those jobs will be gone during the ensuing “production phase,” which could last for 50 or more years.
Arrival of gas companies will create an environment where a whole generation of local residents will have employment opportunities that might persuade them to remain in Potter County, rather than moving away due to economics.
Sectors which will benefit the greatest will include energy, retail trade, construction, maintenance and repair, business services, health services, eating/drinking establishments and transportation.
“By and large, the economic trickle-down benefits are across the economy,” Kelsey said. “It’s not simply the gas industry and a few others.”
Local governments should prepare for the changes, he added, through land-use planning to control development and communication with energy companies to exchange information and identify potential problems.
Some members of the audience pointed out that any economic assessment is incomplete without taking into account the potential for environmental degradation due to water pollution, forest fragmentation, or other impacts from gas drilling.
Dr. Kelsey acknowledged that these could be factors, but added that deriving hard data to include the impact in an economic study was problematic.
